The Five Scenario Archetypes

Use these with internal and external factors to build scenarios that describe an organisation’s futures.

1. Baseline
   WHAT IT IS: A description of how the future represents a continuation of today without significant new disruptive forces.
   WHEN TO USE IT:  Audit of the present; Alongside other scenarios
   
   
2. Reversal
   WHAT IT IS: A description of how the future represents a continuation of today without significant new disruptive forces.
   WHEN TO USE IT: Confront cherished beliefs within a mature organisation

3. Collapse
   WHAT IT IS: The worst case scenario outcomes for an organization. New norms are dysfunction, inability to keep pace with competition, inability to mitigate risk.
   WHEN TO USE IT: See a different point of view; Test an organization’s resilience.

4. Transformation
   WHAT IT IS: The organization driven to  evolve to an optimal future state. New norms are anticipation, agility, ability to see around corners,
   good decision-making.
   WHEN TO USE IT: To map signals, trends and scenarios to strategy
   
   
5. Chaos
   WHAT IT IS: A chaotic event occurs, which might result in sudden risk or opportunity. New norms are unknown. You can also use this as a
   stand-alone scenario using only external factors.
   WHEN TO USE IT: Test an organizations resilience in the wake of disruption; For fun.

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