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The Five Scenario Archetypes

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  • facilitation
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  • futures

The Five Scenario Archetypes

Use these with internal and external factors to build scenarios that describe an organisation’s futures.

  1. Baseline
    WHAT IT IS: A description of how the future represents a continuation of today without significant new disruptive forces.
    WHEN TO USE IT:  Audit of the present; Alongside other scenarios

  2. Reversal
    WHAT IT IS: A description of how the future represents a continuation of today without significant new disruptive forces.
    WHEN TO USE IT: Confront cherished beliefs within a mature organisation
  3. Collapse
    WHAT IT IS: The worst case scenario outcomes for an organization. New norms are dysfunction, inability to keep pace with competition, inability to mitigate risk.
    WHEN TO USE IT: See a different point of view; Test an organization’s resilience.

  4. Transformation
    WHAT IT IS: The organization driven to  evolve to an optimal future state. New norms are anticipation, agility, ability to see around corners,
    good decision-making.
    WHEN TO USE IT: To map signals, trends and scenarios to strategy

  5. Chaos
    WHAT IT IS: A chaotic event occurs, which might result in sudden risk or opportunity. New norms are unknown. You can also use this as a
    stand-alone scenario using only external factors.
    WHEN TO USE IT: Test an organizations resilience in the wake of disruption; For fun.

Read more on the Future Today Institute

Kit Hindin
Kit Hindin
Activator, facilitator, entrepreneur, futurist, designer and strategic thinking partner.

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