The Five Scenario Archetypes

The Five Scenario Archetypes
Use these with internal and external factors to build scenarios that describe an organisation’s futures.
- Baseline
WHAT IT IS: A description of how the future represents a continuation of today without significant new disruptive forces.
WHEN TO USE IT: Audit of the present; Alongside other scenarios - Reversal
WHAT IT IS: A description of how the future represents a continuation of today without significant new disruptive forces.
WHEN TO USE IT: Confront cherished beliefs within a mature organisation Collapse
WHAT IT IS: The worst case scenario outcomes for an organization. New norms are dysfunction, inability to keep pace with competition, inability to mitigate risk.
WHEN TO USE IT: See a different point of view; Test an organization’s resilience.- Transformation
WHAT IT IS: The organization driven to evolve to an optimal future state. New norms are anticipation, agility, ability to see around corners,
good decision-making.
WHEN TO USE IT: To map signals, trends and scenarios to strategy - Chaos
WHAT IT IS: A chaotic event occurs, which might result in sudden risk or opportunity. New norms are unknown. You can also use this as a
stand-alone scenario using only external factors.
WHEN TO USE IT: Test an organizations resilience in the wake of disruption; For fun.